Photo Credits: Sarah Farnsworth
The Goffs Orby Sale just concluded with impressive results. Headlined by a €2 million top lot, the sale saw 397 yearlings change hands for €51,051,500. The clearance rate stood at a robust 85%, with the average price climbing 5% from last year to €128,595.
These strong figures demonstrate market confidence. But as we analyse the results, an intriguing question arises: How sure can we be that traditional selection techniques have identified the true future stars?
Our Equine Match Predictive Pedigree model offers food for thought. Among the 518 lots catalogued, we predict only 30 (6%) potential Stakes winners and 16 (3%) potential Group winners. This data challenges conventional wisdom. While the auction saw high prices for perceived top prospects, do these align with the individuals most likely to achieve racing success?
It’s a reminder that balancing intuition with data-driven insights is crucial in thoroughbred breeding and racing. The highest-priced yearlings don’t always become the top performers.
As our industry evolves, should we be following the money, or following the data?
