In his 2003 book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, financial journalist Michael Lewis documented how manager Billy Beane turned around the fortunes of the Oakland A’s baseball team by ignoring the intuitive, and often flawed, opinions of insiders and focusing instead on a wide range of detailed statistics.
In sticking to cold, hard facts rather than unreliable impressions, he was able to identify players who had been undervalued by the market and buy them for his side more cheaply. Objectivity trumped subjectivity in his approach.
Ever since the publication of the book, and the release of a film adaptation starring Brad Pitt in 2011, there have been murmurings that a ‘Moneyball’ approach could also revolutionize the bloodstock industry.
The parallels are obvious: so many expensive decisions in breeding and buying are based on instinct rather than analysis, even though racecourse results, sales prices and sire and dam performances offer infinite amounts of data points to be studied; it’s just a question of harnessing them.
The team behind the newly launched Equine Match service says it has done just that, and has the much sought-after ‘Moneyball’ solution for mating mares and making purchases. The website promises “data-driven analysis and predictive tools for the horseracing and bloodstock investor”.
Equine Match is the culmination of the combined expertise and vision of Spencer Chapman and Robert Russell, two individuals with a wealth of experience in the bloodstock industry and international banking, respectively.
Chapman brings over 30 years of hands-on experience as a partner in Aston House Stud in Oxfordshire, which has bred notable horses such as Bauer, Boreas, Buckley, Crystal Gazing and Khalidi. Russell complements this with his 45 years of running businesses in international banking. Together, they have owned successful racehorses like Kiefer and Shamanic.
Chapman brings over 30 years of hands-on experience as a partner in Aston House Stud in Oxfordshire, which has bred notable horses such as Bauer, Boreas, Buckley, Crystal Gazing and Khalidi. Russell complements this with his 45 years of running businesses in international banking. Together, they have owned successful racehorses like Kiefer and Shamanic.
The team includes graduates and students from Oxford University and Imperial College London, who bring a vast amount of knowledge and expertise in data science, machine learning and statistical analysis, ensuring a strong foundation in both technology and industry knowledge.
Explaining more about Equine Match, he continues: “It’s a comprehensive, data-driven platform designed to enhance the way bloodstock professionals make breeding and purchasing decisions.
“The platform integrates eight tools, ranging from well-established resources like nicking and pattern search to proprietary offerings such as Pedigree Patterns, the Predictive Pedigree Rating and the Sire Ratings Index.
“The platform integrates eight tools, ranging from well-established resources like nicking and pattern search to proprietary offerings such as Pedigree Patterns, the Predictive Pedigree Rating and the Sire Ratings Index.
But haven’t we been here before? There have been dozens of various pedigree reports and mating tools launched over the years, and many claimed to be the silver bullet. So what makes Equine Match different from the competition?
“Equine Match distinguishes itself from competitors through its data analytics capabilities and its commitment to challenging the status quo in the bloodstock industry,” insists Chapman. “The company has meticulously built its global, digital database from the ground up, allowing it to grow to its current extensive size and complexity.
“This patient, data-driven approach sets Equine Match apart from the largely narrative, single-variable tools that have dominated the market for the past 15 to 20 years. With its robust data foundation, Equine Match is uniquely positioned to introduce the market’s first multi-variable prediction models, providing a more comprehensive and analytical approach to bloodstock analysis.
“As leading data scientist Cathy O’Neil says: ‘When data accumulates in sufficient quantity, simple quantitative rules and algorithms start outperforming human decision makers.’
“As leading data scientist Cathy O’Neil says: ‘When data accumulates in sufficient quantity, simple quantitative rules and algorithms start outperforming human decision makers.’
A cynic might question whether a ‘Moneyball’ reliance on data would work in breeding, when statistics are based on the performances of sometimes intractable, often unpredictable horses, who don’t conform to human behaviour patterns.
And do the figures account for the myriad variables in racing? The difference in performance of different stables, for example? Or injuries, or jockey error?
Chapman won’t be swayed. He reasons: “Adopting a data-driven approach in the bloodstock industry is not only possible but increasingly necessary to keep pace with advancements in technology and decision-making.
“As leading cognitive scientist Steven Pinker observed, ‘Our minds are stubbornly resistant to the data of science and math, preferring to cling to romantic intuitions.’ That sentiment is particularly relevant to the bloodstock industry, where traditional methods have long relied on intuition, experience and conventional wisdom.
“The company’s data-driven models represent a significant advancement in the field, empowering users to make more informed and objective decisions based on a wider range of relevant factors and historical data.”
A cynic might question whether a ‘Moneyball’ reliance on data would work in breeding, when statistics are based on the performances of sometimes intractable, often unpredictable horses, who don’t conform to human behavior patterns.
And do the figures account for the myriad variables in racing? The difference in performance of different stables, for example? Or injuries, or jockey error?
Chapman won’t be swayed. He reasons: “Adopting a data-driven approach in the bloodstock industry is not only possible but increasingly necessary to keep pace with advancements in technology and decision-making.
“As leading cognitive scientist Steven Pinker observed, ‘Our minds are stubbornly resistant to the data of science and math, preferring to cling to romantic intuitions.’ That sentiment is particularly relevant to the bloodstock industry, where traditional methods have long relied on intuition, experience and conventional wisdom.
“However, the success of data analytics in other sports and industries illustrates its potential to provide a competitive edge. As Billy Beane, the Oakland A’s general manager portrayed in Moneyball, famously said, ‘My eye for talent has made me bankrupt twice, so we’re going to try analytics.’ This shift in mindset has revolutionised baseball and highlights the importance of embracing data-driven decision-making.”
Chapman comes up with a fascinating example to prove his point.
“Equine Match’s analysis of over 20 years of data from the Keeneland September Yearling Sale [1999-2022] reveals that top buyers consistently underperform relative to the sale average in terms of black-type performers, stakes winners and Graded winners per $1,000 spent.
“Surprisingly, the RNA [Reserve Not Attained] lots outperformed the sale average in all three categories, suggesting that horses that did not meet their reserve prices had a higher potential for success relative to their anticipated cost.
“This analysis highlights the need for a more balanced, data-driven approach to selecting thoroughbreds, where traditional methods like conformation assessment and veterinary evaluations are complemented by advanced data analytics.”
However, Chapman isn’t arguing for the rise of the robots, and the complete removal of the horseman’s eye and experience from breeding and buying.
“While the inherent randomness of horseracing can’t be entirely eliminated, big data analytics can help mitigate its impact,” he says. “By leveraging vast amounts of historical data and advanced analytical techniques, Equine Match can identify patterns and trends that may not be apparent to the human eye.
“This approach provides users with a more accurate assessment of a horse’s potential, helping them make better-informed decisions in the face of uncertainty and reducing the role of chance in outcomes.
“Equine Match is committed to collaborating with bloodstock agents and other professionals, acting as their data lab and providing valuable insights to enhance their decision-making processes.
“By working together, we aim to combine the expertise and intuition of industry professionals with the power of data analytics, creating a synergistic approach that drives success and innovation in the bloodstock industry.”
Again, though, a doubter might question whether data based on previous events are really relevant to breeding, which obviously involves the random inheritance of roughly 50 per cent genetic material from each parent.
And might it be particularly misleading for nicking and inbreeding? A traditional tabulated pedigree shows only names, not exactly what genetic material has been passed down by that name, so aiming to repeat patterns might be futile.
“Genetic analysis has made progress in recent years, but it still faces limitations in determining the exact percentage of an ancestor’s DNA is inherited by a given horse,” argues Chapman. “However, Equine Match’s extensive database and advanced modelling capabilities offer a powerful alternative approach to understanding a horse’s genetic potential.
“By analysing vast amounts of pedigree data spanning 20 to 30 generations and up to two-billion pedigree positions, Equine Match aims to calculate accurate inbreeding values that go far beyond the widely used five-generation inbreeding analysis. This ambitious goal is driven by the recognition that the current five-generation analysis is not well correlated to genomic inbreeding scores, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach.
“In future iterations of its model, Equine Match plans to integrate these advanced inbreeding values, along with an analysis of closer nicking or inbreeding and mitonuclear combinations. This holistic approach will provide a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of a horse’s genetic potential, helping to bridge the gap between pedigree analysis and genetic research.”
He adds: “The ability to model huge amounts of data through Equine Match’s innovative approach opens up new possibilities for understanding and predicting a horse’s potential, even in the absence of major breakthroughs in bloodstock genetics research.
“As the platform continues to refine its model and incorporate new findings from the field, Equine Match is poised to make significant contributions to the understanding and prediction of a horse’s genetic potential.”
What would surely win over any remaining data sceptics is a guarantee of correct answers to the most unfathomable questions in breeding. The one that would really be a game-changer is predicting which unproven sires will become successful, as it so often seems arbitrary.
So, come on, would Equine Match have told us all to use Havana Grey when he first retired to stud, or even after his first yearlings had sold?
Chapman concedes that might be asking a bit too much, but reckons his platform offers the next best thing.
“Predicting a stallion’s success before his progeny has raced is one of the most challenging tasks in the bloodstock industry,” he says. “While evidence-based predictions through data analytics may be possible in the future, Equine Match’s Sire Ratings Index currently provides the next best solution.
“Unlike other products that rely on limited metrics, such as the Comparable Index or the Racing Ability of the dams with racing age offspring, Equine Match’s Sire Ratings Index offers a more comprehensive assessment of a stallion’s achievement based on numerous predictors within the female family.
“This innovative approach promises to elevate sire analysis to the same level as financial markets, providing daily updates on the Sire Rating for all active stallions, including separate ratings for northern and southern hemisphere-foaled offspring.
“The ratings model also predicts a stallion’s likely career trajectory over the next three years based on the quality of mares covered and nomination fees. While predicting the next breakout star like Havana Grey before his progeny has raced may not be feasible, Equine Match’s Sire Ratings Index provides the next best scenario by plotting the trajectory of sires to identify value in the marketplace.”
Chapman says that Equine Match’s data are rigorously sourced and maintained through a combination of acquisitions, manual data entry and collaboration with trusted partners, including Arion Pedigrees. They are continuously updated and refined, with rare errors identified and rectified.
The product isn’t being launched onto an unsuspecting market without some road testing, either. Its potential has been showcased to some key figures.
“Equine Match has received positive feedback from both potential users and investors, validating its innovative approach and market potential,” says Chapman. “During its initial user testing phase, participants expressed high levels of satisfaction with the platform’s features and user interface.
“The company has also successfully showcased its Nicking and Pattern Search tools through a partnership with Tween hills Stud, demonstrating the value and effectiveness of its offerings.
“Equine Match’s potential has been recognized by Oxford University Innovation [OUI], the investment management vehicle for the University of Oxford. The company has recently been invited to join Phase 2 of OUI’s Incubator programme, after recognising Equine Match’s ‘significant potential’ and expressing eagerness to support its growth and development.
“That recognition from a leading academic institution highlights the scientific principles and advanced methodology that form the foundation of Equine Match’s proprietary tools and algorithms.
“Furthermore, Equine Match has successfully secured funding for its future growth and development through a recent pre-seed funding round, attracting investment from a group of international investors. This global interest and investor support underscore the market potential of Equine Match’s technology and its ability to serve the bloodstock industry.”
No doubt about it, Chapman is bullish about the future of Equine Match.
He says: “As the platform continues to develop its offerings, expand its user base, and foster collaborations with industry professionals and stallion farms, Equine Match is well-positioned to become an indispensable tool for breeders, owners, and investors seeking to improve their decision-making processes and achieve success in the competitive world of thoroughbred racing and breeding.
“By working together and embracing the power of data analytics, we can drive positive change and innovation in the bloodstock industry, ultimately benefiting all stakeholders involved.”
As for the small matter of the cost of gaining access to this potential ‘Moneyball’, Chapman says Equine Match will have a tiered pricing system.
“The platform offers flexible subscription packages to cater to various user needs, from small breeders and hobbyists to high-end professionals,” he says. “The entry-level Pedigree Plus subscription starts at just £10 per month, while the Classic Breeding Tools package, which includes nicking, pattern search, and pedigree patterns, is available for £50 per month. Subscribers can also purchase credits for the signature Predictive Pedigree Rating reports.
“For those seeking the highest level of data analytics, the Professional package will be available very soon at a cost of £5,000 per year. This tier includes access to all tools, including the Predictive Pedigree Rating and our premium Sire Ratings Index, which utilises Trading View charts – a trusted and important provider of data to the financial markets.
“Before the Professional package is made available to subscribers, the Sire Ratings Index will be trialled on the platform’s landing page, giving users a glimpse of its powerful capabilities.
“In addition to these tools, Equine Match will also produce Auction Reports for the major foal, yearling, and breeze-up sales globally, which can be purchased by subscribers to further enhance their breeding and investment strategies.”
“In addition to these tools, Equine Match will also produce Auction Reports for the major foal, yearling, and breeze-up sales globally, which can be purchased by subscribers to further enhance their breeding and investment strategies.”
“Equine Match is dedicated to collaborating with stallion farms to help them build better mating information services for their mare-owning clients,” says Chapman.
“The company offers a unique API-based service [Application Programming Interface] that allows stallion farms to seamlessly integrate Equine Match’s advanced analytics and insights into their existing websites and client portals.
“This API-based integration ensures a smooth and efficient user experience for mare owners, as they can access Equine Match’s tools directly through the stallion farm’s website. By leveraging the platform’s extensive database and powerful algorithms, studs can provide their clients with data-driven recommendations and statistically significant assessments of potential mating outcomes.
“The service is designed to be highly customisable, allowing stallion farms to tailor the information and presentation to their specific needs and branding requirements. Through this collaboration, Equine Match aims to empower stallion farms to offer a more comprehensive and data-driven service to their clients, ultimately helping mare owners make better-informed breeding decisions.
“We feel that by bridging the gap between the marketing demands of stallion owners and the information provided to mare owners, Equine Match is helping to drive innovation and efficiency in the bloodstock industry. It is the only UK or Europe-based provider of this scale of analysis.”
It will be fascinating to see whether Equine Match can succeed where other data tools have failed in the bloodstock industry, by becoming a true ‘Moneyball’ solution to mating mares and buying stock.
